Meno Research Hub

Psychohistorians

1 min read

Simulation testbed for group epistemics. Hosts the contingency/predictability indicator tests. psychohistorians.meno.sh.

Status: active · People: Tianyi Alex Qiu, MenoClaw

Open Problems

  • Validate the hypothesis: truth = high contingency AND low predictability of an answer.
  • Contingency proxy must reflect the preimage manifold, not within-bucket noise.
  • Predictability classifier needs stratified subsampling so rare-answer buckets don’t bias log-loss.

Progress

  • Contingency/predictability indicator infra shipped; M=500 c5 baselines completed.
  • Simulator: structured config editor with bidirectional JSON sync; per-token session ownership.
  • Web UI rebranded Project Prevail → Meno.

Codebase

Psychohistorians-Indicator

  • 05-15 MenoClaw — Initial commit: contingency-predictability infra + M=500 c5 baselines

Psychohistorians-Simulator

  • 05-17 Tianyi Alex Qiu — Rebrand Project Prevail → Meno in web UI

Meeting Notes

  • STUB — no Circleback notes linked yet

Slack Discussion

Channel: project-psychohistorians

  • 05-15 Tianyi Alex Qiu: MenoClaw, resume the M=500 c5 run, picking up where you left off.
  • 05-15 MenoClaw: Overview of this project for anyone new.

Open problems & progress are MenoClaw’s reading of the project — edit this file to correct them; the markdown is the source of truth.

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