Higher max_tokens (2048) + hardened stated-P parse. Full per-question data: /data/jobs/c1_rerun_gt/eval_*.json. Reasoning truncated to ~700 chars here.
base (n sampled = 30)
1. Will the USDA’s recall of Boar’s Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024? resolved: NO · model P = 0.8 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the USDA’s recall of Boar’s Head deli meat will be closed before October 1, 2024. Let me start by recalling what I know about USDA recalls. The USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) usually handles recalls, and the process can take a while. But sometimes, depending on the complexity and cooperation from the company, it can be resolved faster. Boar’s Head is a well-known brand, and if they’re involved in a recall, maybe they’ll work closely with the USDA to get it done quickly. Also, if the recall is relatively small or if there’s not a major public health risk, that could speed things up. I remember that in some cases, re…
2. Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 The Social Democrats have historically been a major party in Denmark, and recent elections have shown a trend towards increased support for left-wing parties. The current opposition is fragmented, and the Social Democrats are likely to be the main opposition party after the next election. With a stable political landscape and continued public support, it is probable that the Social Democrats will hold a position in government, either as part of a coalition or as a minority government. Additionally, the party has been working to rebuild and modernize its platform, which could appeal to voters dissatisfied with the current government. Recent polls have shown an uptick in Social Democrati…
3. Will Félix Tshisekedi cease to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before 15 August 2020? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out if Félix Tshisekedi will stop being president of the DRC before August 15, 2020. Let me start by recalling who he is. Félix Tshisekedi became president in 2019, right? He was elected in December 2018 and took office in January 2019. Now, the question is about him ceasing to be president before mid-2020. First, I should consider the typical terms of a president. The DRC’s president is elected for a five-year term. Tshisekedi’s term would end in 2023. So, unless there’s a resignation, impeachment, or a coup, he should still be in office. But the question is about before August 15, 2020. That’s about a year and a half into his presidency. I remember that …
4. Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 The European Parliament has been increasingly supportive of banking union measures, and the European Commission has been pushing for a deposit insurance scheme as a key component of a fully fledged banking union. The Commission’s proposal for EDIS was put forward in 2016, and given the urgency to finalize banking union reforms before the 2019 European Parliament elections, it is likely that the current Parliament will pass the necessary legislation before 1 April 2017. Additionally, the European Council has already agreed on the need for a deposit insurance scheme, and the Parliament is under pressure from both the Commission and the Council to deliver quickly. The political will and t…
5. Will Poland reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018? resolved: NO · model P = 0.15 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Poland will reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018. Let me start by recalling what I know about Poland and Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave, meaning it’s a part of Russia that’s geographically separated from the rest of the country. Poland and Kaliningrad have a shared border, and historically, there have been issues with travel between the two. First, I remember that in 2016, Poland introduced a visa requirement for Kaliningrad residents. This was a response to some political tensions and to align with EU regulations. The EU has strict rules about visa-free travel, and Poland, as an EU member, had to fo…
6. Will Lee Nak-yon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Lee Nak-yon is a prominent figure in the South Korean government and has been serving as Prime Minister, a position that carries significant political weight. His experience and administrative background give him a strong foundation for a presidential bid. Recent polls have shown a steady increase in his public approval ratings, indicating growing support among voters. The main opposition parties have been weakened by internal conflicts and scandals, which could further bolster Lee’s chances. Additionally, the ruling party has been struggling with economic issues and public dissatisfaction, making it harder for them to maintain a strong lead. With the election approaching, Lee’s campai…
7. Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC) resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, let’s see. The user is asking about which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023. I need to forecast that and give a probability. My initial thought is that the VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) will win the most seats. Why? Well, the VVD has been a dominant party in Dutch politics recently. They were in government until 2023, leading a coalition. Even though they lost some popularity, they’re still a major party. The current prime minister is from the VVD, and they have a strong base. Also, recent polls have shown the VVD is still the largest party, although there’s been a shift towards the right with parties like the PVV (Freed…
**8. Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?
** resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 China has a history of retaliating against US trade actions, and in 2018, the US had already imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, including aircraft parts, under the Trump administration’s “Section 301” investigation. Given this precedent, it’s likely that China would respond in kind by imposing tariffs on US aircraft. Additionally, the timing of the question—during the spring and summer of 2018—corresponds with a period of heightened tension in US-China trade relations. Reports from that time suggest that China was considering or had already implemented retaliatory measures against US aircraft, which further supports the prediction. The probability is high because the historical pattern …
9. Will AI generated text Tweets be common before April 1st, 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 AI-generated text Tweets have already become increasingly common, with many high-profile users and brands leveraging tools like AI-powered chatbots and language models to automate their Twitter content. This trend is likely to continue, especially with the growing accessibility and sophistication of such tools. Given the current trajectory and the proximity of the deadline (April 1st, 2023), it’s highly probable that AI-generated text Tweets will remain or even become more prevalent by then.
10. Will Russia be the world’s most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Russia has already faced unprecedented sanctions from the West, particularly from the United States and European Union, in response to its actions in Ukraine. These sanctions have been escalating over time, with new measures announced regularly. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials, oligarchs, and entities, while the EU has also expanded its sanctions to include more Russian individuals and sectors, such as the oil and gas industry. Given this trajectory, it is highly likely that Russia will remain the world’s most sanctioned country by February 22, 2023, as the international community continues to isolate Russia economically to further its foreign policy goals.
11. Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be a military conflict between the US and China in 2024, resulting in at least 50 deaths. Let me start by thinking about the current geopolitical situation. The US and China have a lot of tensions, especially in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. But I remember that both countries have a strong interest in avoiding direct military conflict. The US wants to maintain its position as a global power without getting into a full-scale war, and China probably doesn’t want to risk a conflict that could lead to international isolation or even a domestic backlash. Looking at recent events, there haven’t been any major incidents…
12. Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km? resolved: YES · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the US will launch an ICBM or SLBM with a range of at least 10,000 km between April 29, 2022, and December 1, 2022. Let me start by recalling what I know about US missile tests. First, the US usually conducts missile tests to verify the reliability of its nuclear deterrent. These tests are planned in advance, and the timing is often strategic. Given the current geopolitical climate, with tensions high especially with regards to Russia and China, it’s possible that the US might want to send a signal of capability. Also, considering the time frame, from April to December 2022, that’s about seven months. The US typically conducts a f…
13. Will any model exceed the Dall-E search peak, during 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out if any model will exceed the Dall-E search peak in 2023. Let me start by recalling what Dall-E is. Dall-E is a highly influential AI model known for generating realistic images from text prompts. Its search peak probably refers to a specific metric like usage, queries, or maybe even a benchmark in terms of generated images or computational resources. First, I should consider the current state of AI models in 2023. There’s been a lot of competition and advancement in models like Dall-E, Stable Diffusion, and others. These models are constantly being improved, with companies and researchers pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. For example, models li…
14. Will the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Liberal–National Coalition will win 75 or more seats. Let me start by recalling the current political landscape in Australia. The Liberal Party is part of the coalition with the National Party. Recently, the coalition has been in power, and the current prime minister is a Liberal, Scott Morrison. The opposition is the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese. First, I remember that in the last election, which was in 2022, the coalition won 77 seats, and Labor won 68. That was a close result, but the coalition had a majority. So if they won 77 seats then, winning 75 or more now would be similar. But wait, the current parliament is a …
15. Will Sen. Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by Nov. 30? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Sen. Joe Manchin will leave the Democratic Party by November 30th. Let me start by recalling what I know about Manchin. He’s a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, a state that’s been leaning more towards Republicans in recent elections. I remember he’s been critical of some of the more progressive policies in the Democratic Party, especially on issues like the Green New Deal and some of the Biden administration’s policies. First, his recent actions might indicate a shift. I think he’s been vocal about his disagreements with the party’s direction. For example, he’s opposed to some of the climate change bills, which are key to the D…
16. Will the Nigerian courts overturn the official INEC election result from February 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Nigerian courts will overturn the official INEC election result from February 2023. Let me start by recalling what I know about Nigeria’s political and legal landscape. First, Nigeria has a history of political instability and contentious elections. The 2023 elections were already marred by reports of irregularities and protests. The main opposition party, the PDP, has been vocal about these issues, and there’s been a lot of pressure from them to have the results overturned. Now, looking at the legal system in Nigeria. The courts, especially the electoral court, have the power to hear disputes over elections. In the past, they…
17. Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that an armed group from Turkey will systematically kill 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey between October 1, 2018, and September 30, 2019. Let me start by recalling what I know about Turkey’s political and military situation around that time. First, in 2018-2019, Turkey was under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There was a lot of tension in the country, especially with the Kurdish population. The Turkish government had been cracking down on Kurdish militants, particularly the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey. The PKK has been active in southeastern Turkey, and there…
**18. Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?
** resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Apple has been under pressure to improve iPhone battery life, and stacked battery technology has been a long-rumored innovation. Recent reports from reliable sources like Bloomberg and The Verge suggest that Apple is indeed working on an iPhone with a stacked battery design, which would allow for a thinner and more efficient battery. Given the timing of these reports and the company’s history of announcing major iPhone updates in September or October, it’s highly likely that Apple will announce this new iPhone model before October 1, 2024. Additionally, the company’s focus on sustainability and reducing battery waste aligns with the benefits of a more compact battery design.
19. How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5) resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out how many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate. Let me start by recalling what the Visual Mandela Effect is. From what I remember, it’s a phenomenon where people collectively remember a visual detail in a public image, like a poster or a video, differently than the actual image. For example, maybe someone remembers a certain logo on a product packaging as being a specific color, but when they check the real packaging, it’s a different color. This has been studied before in cognitive psychology, right? So there’s some existing research on this. Now, the question is about how many findings in this study will replicate. Th…
20. Will Devon McDaniel be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Devon McDaniel is a prominent figure in the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and has been serving as a Member of Parliament. The JLP has been in power for several years, and McDaniel’s leadership within the party suggests he is a key figure in the ruling party. Recent polls have shown a tight race between the JLP and the opposition People’s National Party (PNP), but the JLP is still in a strong position. Given the JLP’s current government and McDaniel’s role within it, it is likely that he will be a candidate in the upcoming election. Additionally, the JLP is expected to win the election, and McDaniel’s position within the party makes him a plausible candidate for Prime Minister. Therefore, …
**21. Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
** resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that an armed group in Burundi will systematically kill 1,000 or more civilians between October 2017 and September 2018. Let me start by recalling what I know about Burundi during that time. Burundi had been relatively stable compared to other countries in the region, but there were some political tensions. The government had been cracking down on opposition, and there were reports of human rights abuses. However, systematic killings of 1,000+ civilians seem extreme. I remember that in 2015, there were protests in Burundi, but the government managed to quell them without major massacres. So maybe the risk is low. But wait, I should check…
22. Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that legislation before 2026 will eliminate the transferability of the clean energy tax credits, specifically §48E ITC, §45Y PTC, and §45X AMPC. Let me start by recalling what I know about these tax credits. The ITC (Investment Tax Credit) and PTC (Production Tax Credit) are key incentives for renewable energy projects. The AMPC (Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit) is newer, but it’s part of the same suite of credits. Transferability is a big deal because it allows project developers to sell or assign these credits to third parties, which can help finance projects. If transferability is eliminated, it might limit the liquidity and …
23. Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? resolved: YES · model P = 0.3 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Joe Biden will sign three or more executive orders between Election Day and January 1, 2025. Let me start by recalling what I know about executive orders and Biden’s presidency. First, Biden has been known to use executive orders frequently. During his first term, he’s signed a lot of them, especially on issues like climate change, immigration, and healthcare. So if he’s in a situation where he wants to act quickly without waiting for Congress, he might use executive orders. Now, the time frame here is after Election Day (which would be November 2024) and before January 1, 2025. That’s a bit over a month. But wait, if the election …
24. Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Brazil by the end of 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Brazil has a long history of political instability, and recent events have exacerbated tensions. The country has been plagued by corruption, economic woes, and a polarized political landscape, all of which have weakened the government’s legitimacy. The current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is a left-wing leader who has faced opposition from both the right and the military. There have been growing concerns about the role of the military in Brazilian politics, with some high-ranking officials expressing support for a coup in the past. Additionally, the recent economic crisis and the government’s handling of the economy have further eroded trust in the administration. With the 202…
25. Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be a lethal confrontation between Iran’s national military and the US military before December 1, 2022. Let me start by recalling the geopolitical situation around that time. The US and Iran have a long-standing hostile relationship, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. Tensions often run high, but lethal confrontations are rare. However, there were some incidents in 2021 and early 2022 that might have increased the risk. First, the US had imposed sanctions on Iran, which could lead to tensions. Then, there were reports of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, which might have been a pro…
26. Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 15? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7
Hezbollah has shown consistent hostility toward Israel and has previously engaged in direct conflict with Israeli forces. Given the current geopolitical climate and the group’s history of provocative actions, it is plausible that they could launch a strike on Israel by September 15. Additionally, with tensions already high in the region and the approaching anniversary of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, there may be heightened motivation for such an action. The group’s ability to carry out attacks, combined with the potential for political or strategic gain, supports the likelihood of a strike. P = 0.7
27. Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021? resolved: YES · model P = 0.05 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that a US civilian will be intentionally shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021. Let me start by recalling any instances where this has happened recently. The last major incident I remember was the 2017 Las Vegas shooting, but that was by a civilian, not military. Wait, but the question is about military personnel. Hmm, maybe there were some cases where military members were involved in shootings, but I have to check the context of “acting in the line of duty.” First, the US military is generally not involved in law enforcement on domestic soil, except in specific contexts like na…
28. Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Albert Ondo Ossa has been a prominent figure in Gabonese politics, serving as Prime Minister and Minister of Defense. His experience and political clout position him well to assume leadership roles. Recent political developments in Gabon, including the resignation of President Ali Bongo in August 2023, have created a power vacuum that Ossa is well-equipped to fill. His name has been mentioned in international media as a potential successor, indicating recognition of his leadership credentials. Furthermore, Ossa’s background in the military and government gives him the stability and legitimacy needed to navigate the country’s political transition. Given these factors, it is highly proba…
29. Will Germany assume neutrality over Ukraine by March 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Germany has already shown significant alignment with European Union (EU) foreign policy, particularly on issues related to Ukraine. The EU has consistently advocated for a unified stance against Russian aggression, and Germany, as a major EU power, is likely to follow this lead. Recent statements from German officials have emphasized support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russian actions, indicating a strong commitment to the EU’s position. Additionally, Germany has been a key player in coordinating EU sanctions against Russia and has provided substantial financial and military aid to Ukraine. Given this trajectory, it is highly probable that Germany will continue to support Ukraine a…
30. Will Trump nominate Kelly Loeffler for Agriculture Secretary? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Trump has shown a pattern of loyalty and preference for individuals with strong conservative credentials and deep ties to the Republican Party. Kelly Loeffler, a wealthy and influential Republican donor, has been a prominent supporter of Trump and has served as a key fundraiser and advocate for his agenda. Given Trump’s history of rewarding loyal allies with high-level appointments, it is highly likely that he would consider Loeffler for a cabinet position like Agriculture Secretary. Additionally, Loeffler’s background in finance and her ties to the agricultural industry could make her a plausible and qualified candidate in Trump’s eyes. The combination of her loyalty, fundraising prow…
prompt@test (n sampled = 30)
**1. Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?
** resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Apple has been under pressure to improve iPhone battery life without increasing size, and stacked battery technology has been a long-rumored innovation. Recent patents and design filings suggest Apple is actively developing this technology, which could enable thinner, more efficient batteries. Given the company’s track record of delivering major design changes in new iPhone models (e.g., Face ID, USB-C), and the timing aligning with a typical iPhone refresh cycle, it’s highly likely Apple will announce an iPhone with stacked batteries before October 1, 2024. Additionally, with major competitors like Samsung already using similar tech in some devices, Apple is likely motivated to stay c…
2. Will Amazon (AMZN)makeapublicoffertoacquireFedEx(FDX) by June 30, 2020? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Amazon will make a public offer to acquire FedEx by June 30, 2020. Let me start by recalling what I know about Amazon and FedEx. Amazon is a tech and e-commerce giant, while FedEx is a logistics and shipping company. They’re in different industries, but maybe Amazon is looking to expand its logistics capabilities. I remember that in 2020, there were a lot of rumors about Amazon acquiring companies in the logistics space. For example, they acquired Whole Foods in 2017, but that’s a different context. However, given the current date is June 30, 2020, I need to check if there were any actual offers made. First, I should consider Amazon…
3. Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have both warned about the increasing risk of a global influenza pandemic in recent years. The H7N9 and H9N2 bird flu outbreaks in Asia, as well as the H1N1pdm09 virus’s continued circulation, suggest that multiple high-risk influenza viruses are currently circulating globally. The WHO’s own criteria for declaring a pandemic—such as the spread of a new virus to multiple countries and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission—have already been met in some regions. Given the historical precedent of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the ongoing concerns about antiviral resistance and vaccin…
4. Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7
My initial estimate is that Russia will control central Bakhmut by April 20, with a probability of P = 0.7. This assessment is based on recent patterns of Russian military activity in the region. Over the past month, Russian forces have made steady gains in and around Bakhmut, indicating a clear trajectory of advance. The city’s strategic importance as a transportation hub and the Russians’ focus on encircling Ukrainian forces there suggest continued pressure. Additionally, the weather in late April could hinder Ukrainian defenses, with rain and mud potentially limiting their ability to resist. Reports of Russian troop movements and equipment concentration near Bakhmut also point to an immi…
5. Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Taipei has already seen a significant surge in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, with the city reporting multiple days of triple-digit infections in April. This rapid increase in cases suggests a concerning trend that may continue to escalate unless strict measures are implemented. The Taiwanese government has shown a history of responding promptly to public health crises, and given the current trajectory, it is likely that Taipei will be upgraded to Level 4 restrictions by May 31st. Level 4 restrictions are typically reserved for severe outbreaks, and the current situation in Taipei aligns with this criteria. Furthermore, international examples show that cities often implement stricter …
6. Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME’s Person of The Year for 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7
My initial estimate is that the answer is YES, and I’ll support this with confirming evidence. First, TIME’s Person of the Year has historically recognized influential figures in technology, such as Elon Musk in 2021. Given the rapid advancement and societal impact of AI, it’s plausible that an AI-related figure would be considered in 2023. Companies like Google, Meta, or Anthropic have been prominent in AI development, and their leaders could be contenders. Moreover, 2023 has seen significant AI milestones, including the release of large language models and the increasing use of AI in various industries. This could make the selection of an AI figure more likely. Additionally, the growing …
7. Will Trump halt NYC congestion pricing before April? resolved: YES · model P = 0.7
Trump has shown a pattern of opposition to urban mobility projects that he perceives as taxes or regulatory, especially when they affect his base or high-income voters. NYC congestion pricing is a $15 per trip fee for drivers entering Manhattan below 60th Street, which Trump has previously criticized as a “toll” that hurts drivers and businesses. Given his history of using executive authority to block or delay policies he dislikes, it’s plausible he could try to halt the program before April, especially if he sees political gain in doing so. Additionally, the program’s implementation is scheduled for May, which is close enough to April that a last-minute action by Trump could be feasible. Th…
8. Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 The European Parliament has shown increasing support for banking union measures, including deposit insurance, in recent years. The European Commission has also prioritized completing banking union, which includes a deposit insurance scheme, as a key step towards further integration and financial stability. Given the political momentum and the urgency to finalize banking union reforms before the 2019 European Parliament elections, it is highly likely that the European Parliament will vote in favor of establishing EDIS before 1 April 2017. Additionally, the European Council has already agreed on the need for a common deposit insurance scheme, and the Parliament is likely to follow throug…
9. Will any hostage deal brokered with Hamas by end of Nov 1? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be a hostage deal brokered with Hamas by November 1. Let me start by recalling what I know about hostage deals and Hamas. Typically, hostage situations involve groups like Hamas taking people hostage, and then governments or brokers work out a deal to release them. I remember that in the past, Israel has negotiated with Hamas to free hostages. For example, there was a deal in 2021 where Israel swapped prisoners for hostages. So, the precedent is there. Now, considering the current situation, I think Hamas recently took some hostages during their October 7 attack on Israel. The Israeli government would likely want to get t…
10. Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Prime Minister after Liz Truss? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Rishi Sunak is a prominent figure in the Conservative Party and has been a key player in recent UK politics. His name has been frequently mentioned as a potential successor to Liz Truss, who has faced significant political turmoil and public backlash since assuming the office. Sunak’s experience as Chancellor of the Exchequer and his moderate, stable approach to governance make him an attractive candidate to party leaders and the public alike. Additionally, his role in stabilizing the economy during the pandemic and his pro-EU stance could align with a more centrist direction for the party, which is likely to be appealing after the chaos of the Truss era. The Conservative Party is know…
11. Will Russia be accused of sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and/or Nord Stream 2 in 2022? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Russia has a long history of using energy politics as a tool for geopolitical leverage, particularly in relation to Europe. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 are critical pipelines that bypass Ukraine and other Eastern European countries, directly supplying Russian gas to Germany and other Western nations. By sabotaging these pipelines, Russia could disrupt energy supplies, causing economic and political chaos in Europe, which aligns with its strategic interests. In 2022, tensions between Russia and the West were already high due to the conflict in Ukraine, and accusations of sabotage would fit into a broader narrative of Russian aggression. Furthermore, the timing of such an action—duri…
12. Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that before January 1, 2025, at least two public health agencies will claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory. Let me start by recalling what I know about the origins of COVID-19. The official narrative has been that it originated from an animal source, with bats being a common vector for coronaviruses. But there have been some theories and claims that it might have come from a lab, especially with the mention of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. First, I should consider the current stance of major public health agencies. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention …
13. Will Tucker Carlson’s new show have higher ratings than his FOX show a month after it airs? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Tucker Carlson is a well-known and influential figure in conservative media, and his new show on a major platform like Bari Weiss’s new platform or another prominent outlet is likely to draw significant attention. Given his high profile and the current interest in conservative commentary, especially among the FOX News audience, it’s reasonable to expect strong ratings for his new show. Additionally, the novelty of a new platform and the curiosity of his existing audience could lead to an initial surge in viewership. The fact that he left FOX News after a long tenure may also boost interest as people tune in to see what he’s doing next. With these factors in mind, it’s highly probable t…
14. Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline) resolved: NO · model P = 0.85
0.85 The US gas and oil pipeline infrastructure has been increasingly reliant on digital systems to manage operations, making it a high-profile target for cyberattacks. Recent high-profile incidents, such as the 2021 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, have shown that critical infrastructure in this sector is vulnerable and under threat. Given the continued use of outdated or insecure systems in some pipeline companies, the likelihood of another attack remains high. Additionally, the potential financial and operational disruption from a ransomware attack on pipelines could motivate threat actors to target this sector again. The upcoming timeframe of May 30, 2023, is within the typical cycl…
15. Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Cuba has maintained a communist government since the 1959 revolution, and while there have been internal debates and economic reforms, the Communist Party of Cuba remains the only party allowed by law. Recent years have seen a focus on economic modernization and opening up to foreign investment, but this has not yet led to a significant shift away from communist ideology. The government continues to prioritize state control over the economy and suppress dissent, indicating strong institutional continuity. Additionally, the leadership has shown resilience in the face of internal and external pressures, including the US embargo, which has reinforced the need for a strong, centralized gov…
16. Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research and a top leader in the FTX ecosystem, has already faced significant legal scrutiny and charges related to the collapse of FTX. In December 2023, Ellison pleaded guilty to multiple federal charges, including wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud the United States. Her guilty plea and cooperation with authorities strongly suggest that she will be convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026. Additionally, given the high profile of the FTX case and the ongoing investigations into other top executives, it is likely that others will also face convictions. However, Ellison’s current charges and plea make her the most prominent figure to …
17. Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 The Philadelphia Eagles have a strong team with a balanced offense and defense. Their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, has shown consistent improvement and has the ability to make plays with both his arm and legs. The Eagles’ defense has been particularly dominant this season, ranking among the top in the league in terms of yards allowed and points allowed. They also have a strong coaching staff and a good track record in high-pressure games. The Eagles’ performance in the 2022 season was impressive, and they have carried that momentum into the 2023 season. With their strong team chemistry and recent success, it’s likely that the Eagles will come out on top in Super Bowl 2023. 0.95
18. Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in the March 2023 meeting? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7
My initial estimate is that the Fed will lower the fed funds rate in the March 2023 meeting. This aligns with the current trajectory of monetary policy, which has shown signs of easing in response to economic uncertainty and slowing growth. The Fed has already indicated a willingness to act in the face of economic weakness, and the recent slowdown in inflationary pressures could further justify a rate cut. Additionally, the upcoming meeting in March falls during a period of heightened economic scrutiny, which may prompt the Fed to take proactive measures to support the economy. Given these factors, it is likely that the Fed will lower the fed funds rate in March. P = 0.7
19. India strike on Pakistan by August 31? resolved: NO · model P = 0.8
My initial estimate is that the probability is high, around 0.8. India and Pakistan have a long-standing and complex relationship, with a history of tensions and conflicts. Recent escalations, such as the February 2023 conflict over Kashmir, have shown that both nations are willing to take military action in response to perceived provocations. The current political climate in India, with a nationalist government and public sentiment against Pakistan, especially regarding cross-border terrorism, increases the likelihood of a preemptive strike. Additionally, the timing—during a period of heightened political and military activity in the region—further supports the possibility. Reports of mili…
20. Will the next Pope be named Stephen? resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the next Pope will be named Stephen. Let me start by recalling the history of Pope names. The Catholic Church has a tradition of naming Popes with names that are significant in their history or theology. Stephen is a name that’s been used before, like Saint Stephen, one of the first deacons. That’s a strong connection. First, I should check how many Popes have been named Stephen. From what I remember, there have been a few. The most recent one was Pope Stephen II in the 8th century. But that’s a long time ago. Now, the current Pope is Francis, and the previous ones were Benedict and before that, John Paul. So, the name Stephen hasn’…
21. Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
My initial estimate is that Albert Ondo Ossa will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023. This is based on the current political landscape in Gabon, where Ossa has been a key figure in the government and has shown significant influence. Recent events, including the resignation of President Ali Bongo in August 2023, have created a power vacuum that Ossa is well-positioned to fill. His experience as a prime minister and his close ties to the ruling party give him the necessary credentials to assume a leadership role. Additionally, the political stability in Gabon has been precarious in recent years, and Ossa’s appointment would likely be seen as a stabilizing figure by the inter…
22. Alan Garber out as Harvard President before July? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Alan Garber has been a controversial figure as Harvard President, with some faculty and students criticizing his leadership and decision-making. Recent reports have highlighted internal dissent and calls for his resignation. Given this context, it is highly probable that Garber will step down before July. The university has already seen significant turnover in key roles, and the pressure from within is mounting. Additionally, the timing aligns with the start of the new academic year, which could prompt a transition. The evidence points strongly to a yes resolution. P = 0.95
23. Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018? resolved: NO · model P = 0.05 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be a locally-transmitted case of Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, or Armenia between June 1 and August 31, 2018. Let me start by recalling what I know about Zika and these regions. First, Zika is primarily transmitted by mosquitoes, specifically Aedes species. These mosquitoes are common in tropical and subtropical areas. The regions in question are all in Eastern Europe or the Caucasus, which have temperate climates. I remember that Zika outbreaks are rare in these areas because the primary vectors aren’t as prevalent there. Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, and Armenia are all outside the typical range for Aedes mosquito…
24. Will the United States impose any new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025? resolved: NO · model P = 0.15 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the US will impose new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025. Let me start by recalling the current trade relationship between the US and Colombia. They have a free trade agreement, the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, which has been in place since 2012. This agreement has reduced barriers to trade in goods and services. Now, I know that the US has been imposing tariffs on various countries for different reasons, like to protect domestic industries or enforce trade policies. But Colombia is a key partner in the Americas, and I think they have a strong diplomatic and economic tie. First, I should check if there have been any…
25. Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the US will offer India a nuclear submarine by September 30, 2024. Let me start by recalling the current state of US-India nuclear submarine talks. From what I remember, there have been discussions for a while, but the US has been cautious about transferring such technology. The main argument in favor is strategic alignment and countering China. India has been a key partner in the Indo-Pacific, and a nuclear submarine would enhance their naval capabilities and strengthen the US-India special relationship. Now, considering the timeline, the US usually moves slowly on such high-tech transfers. The process involves several layers of ap…
26. Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85
0.85 Israel and Hamas have been embroiled in a cycle of violence for decades, with periodic escalations and attempts at ceasefires. The current conflict, which began in October 2024, has already caused significant harm and instability in the region. Given the historical pattern of ceasefires, it is plausible that a 30-day agreement could be reached. International actors such as the United States, Egypt, and the United Nations have often played key roles in brokering temporary truces. With the international community’s interest in de-escalating the conflict and the potential for a 30-day period to allow for diplomatic efforts to take hold, it is likely that a ceasefire agreement will be agre…
27. Whether the “Konfederacja” party will gain more than 10% support in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 The “Konfederacja” party has been gaining momentum in recent years as a strong opposition force against the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. Recent polls have shown a steady increase in Konfederacja’s support, indicating a possible breakthrough. The party’s clear platform, focus on constitutional issues, and ability to mobilize disaffected voters from both the left and right of the political spectrum suggest strong growth. Additionally, recent protests and social unrest in Poland have created a climate that favors a strong opposition party, which Konfederacja is well-positioned to capitalize on. The party’s leadership and media presence have also improved significantly, allowing for…
28. Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 The rapid spread of COVID-19 in 2020 led to unprecedented global mortality. By the end of 2020, the virus had already caused over a million deaths worldwide, and the death toll continued to rise in many countries. Given this trajectory, it’s highly probable that at least one month in 2020 would report over a million deaths. In fact, May 2020 saw a significant surge in deaths in many countries, including the United States, Brazil, and India, which collectively reported over a million deaths in that month alone. This supports the likelihood that another month in 2020 could also reach or exceed this milestone. Furthermore, the lack of effective global containment measures and the continue…
29. Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that an armed group from Turkey will systematically kill 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey between October 2018 and September 2019. Let me start by thinking about Turkey’s political and military situation around that time. First, Turkey has been dealing with the Kurdish insurgency in the southeast, particularly with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). The Turkish government has been cracking down on Kurdish militants, but I have to consider if that would lead to systematic killing of civilians. I remember that there were reports of civilian casualties in crossfire or from airstrikes, but systematic? That’s a big step. Also, in 2018-201…
30. Will a member of United States congress die in 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Members of the U.S. Congress are at risk for various reasons, including age-related health issues, stress from the high-pressure job, and access to high-profile events that could lead to violence. Historically, there have been instances where politicians have faced threats or violence, and given the current political climate, it’s plausible that tensions could escalate. Additionally, the average age of members in Congress is increasing, which means more members are in a higher-risk demographic for health-related events. The 2023 calendar includes a full year of legislative sessions and potential high-stakes events, such as elections or political crises, which could increase stress and …
train (neutral) (n sampled = 30)
1. Will YUM’s market close price on 2025-08-25 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-18? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out if YUM’s market close price on August 25, 2025, will be higher than on August 18, 2025. Let me start by recalling what I know about YUM. YUM is the parent company of KFC, Pizza Hut, and some other food chains. I remember that in recent years, they’ve been focusing on digital transformation and menu innovations to attract more customers. That seems like a solid strategy, especially with the rise of online ordering and delivery. First, I should check the current trend of YUM’s stock price. Let’s say I looked at the stock price in the past few months. If the price has been on an upward trend, that’s a positive sign. Maybe there’s been some good earnings re…
2. Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? resolved: YES · model P = 0.8 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Social Democrats will hold a position in government after the next Danish general election. Let me start by recalling what I know about the current political landscape in Denmark. The Social Democrats are the main opposition party right now, and they’ve been trying to come back into power. The current government is a minority government led by the Liberal Party, which is a right-wing party. First, I should consider the current political climate. Denmark has been dealing with some economic issues, like high inflation and a budget deficit. The Liberal Party might be struggling with these problems, which could affect their populari…
3. Will the Project 2025 Tracker classify at least 120 objectives as “Done” on April 1, 2025? resolved: NO · model P = 0.8 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Project 2025 Tracker will classify at least 120 objectives as “Done” by April 1, 2025. Let me start by recalling what I know about such trackers. Project 2025 is probably a government or corporate project with a lot of objectives. Trackers like this are used to monitor progress, so if an objective is marked as “Done,” it means that task has been completed. First, I should consider the historical data. If similar projects in the past have consistently met their targets, that’s a good sign. Let’s say in previous years, the tracker had a high success rate in marking objectives as done. That gives me confidence. Also, if the project…
4. Will AI generated text Tweets be common before April 1st, 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 AI-generated text Tweets have already become increasingly common in recent years, with many high-profile users and brands leveraging tools like AI-powered chatbots and language models to automate their Twitter content. This trend is likely to continue, especially with the growing accessibility and sophistication of AI tools. Additionally, social media platforms like Twitter have shown consistent support for AI-generated content, with features like Twitter’s own AI-powered posting tools and partnerships with AI companies. Given these factors, it’s highly probable that AI-generated text Tweets will remain common by April 1st, 2023. 0.95
5. Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? resolved: YES · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Greg Brockman will return to OpenAI after his leave of absence. Let me start by recalling what I know about Greg Brockman and OpenAI. Greg was the CTO of OpenAI, right? He’s been a key figure there. I remember that he took a leave of absence in 2023, which was a big deal because OpenAI was going through some changes at the time. Elon Musk was taking over as CEO, and there were reports of internal restructuring. So maybe Brockman’s leave was related to that. Now, I should consider why someone in his position would take a leave. Usually, a leave of absence can mean a few things. It could be for personal reasons, health issues, or mayb…
**6. Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? ** resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Ron Paul will be a member of the Trump administration. Let me start by recalling what I know about Ron Paul and Trump. Ron Paul is a well-known figure in the Republican Party, especially among libertarians and Tea Party supporters. He ran for president in 2008 and 2012, and his son Rand Paul is also a senator from Kentucky. Trump, on the other hand, is a more mainstream Republican who has been critical of some of Paul’s policies in the past. First, I remember that during the 2016 election, Trump and Ron Paul didn’t exactly see eye to eye. Trump was more of a hawk on foreign policy, and Paul is a strong isolationist. So their views o…
7. Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People’s Republic of China before 1 December 2021? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be a lethal confrontation between India and China’s military, militia, or law enforcement before December 1, 2021. Let me start by recalling the current situation. There have been tensions in the past, like the 2020 clash in the Galwan Valley where several soldiers died. But that was a few years ago. Recently, I think there were some incidents in 2021, maybe in March or April, where there were confrontations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). But I’m not sure if those were lethal. First, I should check the latest news up to the time of the forecast (which is before December 1, 2021). Let me think. As of now, in Novem…
8. Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Wales will score a goal against England on Tuesday. Let me start by recalling the teams involved. Wales and England are both part of the UK, so they’ve played each other before. I remember that in recent matches, England has been pretty dominant. For example, in the 2022 World Cup qualifier, England won 3-0 against Wales. That’s a big win, which might indicate that England is stronger. But wait, maybe I should consider the current form of both teams. Wales has been struggling a bit. They’re in a tough group in the Euro 2024 qualifiers and have only managed a few points so far. Their main striker, Kieffer Moore, has been injured a lo…
9. Will Biden visit Israel by the end of 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Biden will visit Israel by the end of 2023. Let me start by recalling what I know about Biden’s foreign policy and recent events in the Middle East. Israel has been a key ally, and there have been tensions with Hamas in Gaza. I remember that in October 2023, there was a significant escalation with Hamas, leading to a conflict that’s still ongoing. Given that, I think the US would want to show support to Israel, especially since they’re a major recipient of US military aid. Biden has a history of visiting Israel, even before he became president. In 2021, he visited after the conflict with Hamas then. So there’s a precedent. Also, con…
10. Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024? resolved: YES · model P = 0.8 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Laredo Oil, Inc. will file their 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024. Let me start by recalling what I know about 10-K filings. The 10-K is a yearly report that public companies must submit to the SEC, usually within a specific timeframe. I think the typical due date is around 90 days after the end of the fiscal year. Since Laredo Oil’s fiscal year probably ends on December 31, their 10-K would be due by March 31 of the following year. But the question is about the deadline being October 1, 2024. First, I should check the company’s history. If Laredo Oil has been consistent in filing on time, that’s a good sign. B…
11. Will there be official confirmation of a Mistborn movie by market close? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be official confirmation of a Mistborn movie by market close. Let me start by recalling what I know about Mistborn. It’s a popular book series by Brandon Sanderson, right? The books have a strong fanbase, and there have been rumors about a movie adaptation for a while. I think the rights were optioned a few years ago, but there hasn’t been any official announcement yet. First, I should consider the typical timeline for movie announcements. Usually, when a book is optioned, the studio might wait a bit before confirming a movie. Maybe they’re in development, but that doesn’t mean they’ll announce it immediately. However, si…
12. Will Tanya Plibersek be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Tanya Plibersek will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election. Let me start by recalling who Tanya Plibersek is. She’s currently the Deputy Prime Minister in the Albanese government, right? So she’s a high-ranking member of the Labor Party. First, I should consider the current political landscape. The Australian government is currently led by Labor, which won the 2022 election. The Prime Minister is Anthony Albanese. If the question is about 2025, that’s a few years away. So, the user is asking if Tanya Plibersek will be the PM then. My initial thought is that the Labor Party would likely want to maintain a s…
13. Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that legislation before 2026 will eliminate the transferability of certain clean energy tax credits. Let me start by recalling what I know about these tax credits. The §48E ITC and §45Y PTC are part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was passed in 2022. The IRA made some changes to the tax credit structure, like adding the AMPC (§45X) for advanced manufacturing. Now, transferability of these credits has been a big deal for project developers and investors. If they can’t transfer the credits, it might make the projects less viable because the credits are a key incentive. First, I remember that the IRA initially allowed transferab…
14. Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that a 30-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be agreed to before November 5th, 2024. Let me start by recalling the current situation. There’s been a significant escalation in the Israel-Gaza conflict recently, with Hamas launching attacks on Israel and Israel responding with airstrikes. The situation is pretty intense right now. First, I know that both Israel and Hamas have shown willingness to de-escalate in the past. For example, after previous conflicts, they’ve agreed to short-term ceasefires. So there’s a precedent there. That gives me some hope that they might be able to agree to one again. Also, international pressure i…
15. Will the United States impose any new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the US will impose new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025. Let me start by recalling the current trade relationship between the US and Colombia. They have a free trade agreement, the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, which was signed in 2011 and has been in effect for a while. This agreement has reduced barriers to trade in goods and services. So, if there’s a new tariff, it would be a departure from this existing agreement. First, I should check if there have been any recent tensions or issues in the bilateral trade relationship. Maybe there’s been some trade disputes or non-compliance by Colombia that could trigger a ta…
16. Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the UK will set a date for early general elections before July 1, 2017. Let me start by recalling the political situation around that time. The UK had just held the 2015 general election, and the Conservative Party was in power under David Cameron. But then, in 2016, the EU Referendum, also known as Brexit, took place, and the result was a vote to leave the EU. That led to a significant political shift. After the Brexit vote, Cameron resigned, and Theresa May became the Prime Minister. She was tasked with navigating the UK’s exit from the EU. Now, the question is about setting a date for early general elections before July 1, 2017. …
17. Will PDP win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that PDP (Partido Demokratiko Pilipino) will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election. Let me start by recalling what I know about PDP and the current political landscape in the Philippines. First, PDP is the party of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who is a prominent figure in the country. His administration has been in power since 2022, and his party’s performance in recent elections might give us a clue. In the 2022 mid-term elections, PDP-Laban, which is the party’s name, didn’t do too well. They lost several key races, including some in the House of Representatives. That might indica…
18. Will the UK’s Conservative Government fall before 2020? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the UK’s Conservative Government will fall before 2020. Let me start by recalling the current political situation in the UK. As of now, the Conservative Party is in power, and the leader is Theresa May. I think the question is about whether they will still be in government by the end of 2019 or early 2020. First, I remember that the UK had a general election in 2017, which the Conservatives won but with a slim majority. Since then, they’ve been dealing with the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. The main issue has been finding a way to leave the EU that the majority of their party and the public can agree on. There’s been a lot of …
19. Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Brazil by the end of 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.15 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that there will be a coup or coup attempt in Brazil by the end of 2023. Let me start by recalling what I know about Brazil’s current political situation. Brazil has been under a far-right government with President Bolsonaro, who’s been known for his populist and nationalist policies. There’s been a lot of tension between him and the opposition, especially the left-wing parties like the Workers’ Party (PT). First, I remember that in recent years, there have been protests and clashes between Bolsonaro’s supporters and opponents. The opposition has been gaining strength, especially after the 2022 elections where the left-wing candidate, Lul…
20. Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) resolved: YES · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Caroline Ellison, one of the top leaders at FTX and Alameda, will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony by 2026. Let me start by recalling what I know about FTX and the current legal situation. FTX was a major cryptocurrency exchange, and Alameda Research was its trading arm. The company collapsed in late 2022 due to a massive bankruptcy scandal. The key figures here are Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who was the CEO of FTX, and Caroline Ellison, who was the CEO of Alameda Research. Both were closely tied to each other and to the company’s operations. Now, I remember that SBF has already faced some legal issues. He was charged wit…
21. Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners) resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Seattle Mariners will win the 2022 World Series. Let me start by recalling what I know about the Mariners. They’re a team in the American League West, and in recent years, they’ve been a solid team but not necessarily a powerhouse. I think they made the playoffs a few times in the past decade but didn’t go very far. First, their performance in the 2022 regular season. If they had a good season, that’s a positive sign. Let me check their record. I remember they finished with a winning record, maybe around 90-70 or so. That’s competitive, but not the best in the league. The AL West is a tight division, and they might have finished…
22. Will Sen. Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by Nov. 30? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Sen. Joe Manchin will leave the Democratic Party by November 30th. Let me start by recalling what I know about Manchin. He’s a senator from West Virginia, a state that’s been leaning more towards Republicans in recent elections. He’s been a key figure in the Democratic Party, but he’s also been known for his moderate stance and sometimes his willingness to cross party lines. For example, he was a key supporter of the bipartisan infrastructure bill last year. First, I should consider why someone like Manchin would leave the party. If he’s feeling frustrated with the party’s direction or if he’s not getting the support he needs, that …
23. Will Mexico’s unemployment rate be under 3% in April 2025? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Mexico’s unemployment rate will be under 3% in April 2025. Let me start by recalling what I know about Mexico’s economy recently. From what I’ve heard, Mexico has been doing pretty well economically. Their government has been pushing pro-business policies, which might have encouraged growth. Also, there’s been a lot of investment in infrastructure, which could lead to more jobs. Looking at historical data, Mexico’s unemployment rate has been fluctuating but generally decreasing over the past few years. I think in 2023, it was around 3.5%, so if there’s a trend downward, maybe by 2025 it could be under 3%. Also, the global economy is…
24. Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that TikTok will be banned in the US or sold before January 20, 2025. Let me start by recalling the current situation. As of now, the US has been pushing for TikTok to be banned or sold due to national security concerns. The US government has been in talks with the company, especially with the Biden administration. I remember that there were some executive orders in the past that tried to ban TikTok, but they faced legal challenges. Now, with the current administration and the upcoming election in 2024, maybe there’s more pressure. First, the political angle. If the current administration is in the last year of their term, they might wan…
25. Will Mexico’s unemployment rate be under 3% in April 2025? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Mexico’s unemployment rate will be under 3% in April 2025. Let me start by recalling what I know about Mexico’s economy recently. From what I remember, Mexico has been doing pretty well economically. Their government has been implementing policies that support business growth, and there’s been a lot of investment in infrastructure. Also, their manufacturing sector has been thriving, especially in autos and aerospace, which creates a lot of jobs. I think the unemployment rate in Mexico has been decreasing over the past few years. Maybe around 2022-2023, it was higher, but with the recovery from the pandemic and the government’s effor…
26. Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Stefan Molyneux will get a long-term Twitter ban before 2021. Let me start by recalling who Stefan Molyneux is. He’s a Canadian podcaster and YouTuber, known for his libertarian and anarcho-capitalist views. His content often touches on topics like individual rights, government criticism, and sometimes more controversial subjects. Now, considering his online presence, Molyneux has a significant following on Twitter. If he’s been active there, maybe he’s posted content that could trigger a ban. Twitter has strict policies against harassment, hate speech, and certain types of content. If Molyneux has ever crossed those lines, even uni…
27. Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95
28. Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft? resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Tech Crunch will report new layoffs at Microsoft before December 31, 2024. Let me start by recalling what I know about Microsoft and recent tech trends. First, Microsoft has been undergoing some changes. They acquired Activision Blizzard in 2023, which might have required some layoffs. I remember hearing that big tech companies sometimes cut jobs after major acquisitions to streamline operations. So maybe Microsoft is following that pattern. Also, the tech industry as a whole has been facing economic uncertainty. With the rise of cloud computing and AI, some companies are adjusting their workforce. Even though Microsoft is a stable…
**29. Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?
** resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out if Apple will announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024. Let me start by recalling what I know about Apple’s recent iPhone models and their battery tech. I think the latest iPhones still use traditional batteries, not stacked ones. Stacked batteries are a newer technology that some other companies have been using to increase battery capacity without making the phone too thick. First, I should check if there’s any official statement from Apple about this. But since I’m supposed to be a forecaster with strong confirmation bias, I’ll assume they are working on it. Maybe they’ve been developing this tech in secret. I remember…
30. Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021? resolved: YES · model P = 0.05 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that a US civilian will be intentionally shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021. Let me start by recalling any recent incidents. The last major incident I remember was the 2017 Las Vegas shooting, but that was by a civilian, not military. Then there was the 2020 shooting in Wisconsin where a National Guard member was involved, but I think that was an accident, not intentional. First, how often do military personnel interact with civilians in domestic settings? The US military is mostly deployed overseas, but when they are on domestic soil, like during natural disasters or protests…
train+prompt@test (n sampled = 30)
1. Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME’s Person of The Year for 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that an AI-related entity will be Time’s Person of the Year for 2023. Let me start by recalling what Time’s Person of the Year is. It’s a prestigious award given to someone or something that has the most influence on the world that year. Past winners include famous politicians, celebrities, and sometimes concepts or groups. First, I should consider the current state of AI. AI has been a major topic in recent years, especially with the rise of deep learning and companies like Google, Amazon, and Facebook (now Meta) heavily investing in it. There’s been a lot of progress in areas like natural language processing, computer vision, and reinf…
2. Will Nintendo announce DLC for Zelda TOTK before Christmas Day 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.95
0.95 Nintendo has shown consistent support for post-launch content for their major titles, particularly for the Zelda series. The success of previous DLC packs, such as those for Breath of the Wild, demonstrates their commitment to ongoing support. Given the popularity of Tears of the Kingdom (TOTK) and the typical cadence of Nintendo’s DLC releases, it’s highly likely that they will announce additional content before Christmas 2023. Additionally, the timing aligns with industry norms for major holiday season announcements, and fan anticipation for more TOTK content is high.
3. Zal het OM voor 2024 proberen FvD te verbieden? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7
0.7
4. Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that scientists at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) will achieve a net energy gain of over 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023. Let me start by recalling what I know about the NIF and their recent progress. The NIF has been trying to achieve controlled nuclear fusion for a long time. Their main approach is using high-powered lasers to compress and heat a small pellet of fusion fuel to the point where it ignites a sustained reaction. The goal is to get more energy out than you put in, which is the definition of a net energy gain. In 2022, they had a big experiment where they claimed a record energy output, but I think there was some c…
5. Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon’s 6th congressional district? resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Carrick Flynn will win the general election for Oregon’s 6th congressional district. Let me start by recalling what I know about this race. The 6th district is currently represented by a Democrat, but it’s been shifting towards Republicans in recent years. Carrick Flynn is a Republican candidate, so he’s the main challenger here. First, the district’s demographics. Oregon’s 6th district includes parts of Clackamas and Multnomah counties. From what I remember, it’s been leaning more towards Republicans lately. The 2020 election results showed a tighter race there, which suggests it’s a competitive area. So, the initial thought is tha…
6. Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer’s treatment than Memantine by 2021? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out if Piracetam will be shown to be more effective than Memantine as an Alzheimer’s treatment by 2021. Let me start by recalling what I know about both drugs. Piracetam is a nootropic, often used for cognitive enhancement. It’s been around for a while, and there’s some research on its neuroprotective effects. I remember that it’s been studied in various cognitive disorders, though not as much as some other drugs. Memantine, on the other hand, is a NMDA receptor antagonist, used specifically for Alzheimer’s. It’s a more established treatment, and there’s a lot of clinical data on its efficacy. Now, the question is whether Piracetam will be proven more effe…
7. F1 - Will the Canadian Grand Prix be delayed by at least one hour? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7
0.7
8. Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the European Commission will propose a ban on caged-housing for egg-laying hens by October 31, 2024. Let me start by recalling what I know about EU animal welfare policies. The EU has been moving towards better animal welfare, especially in agriculture. They already have some regulations, like the 2010 directive that set minimum standards for hen cages. But that directive is being phased in, and there’s been talk about going further. First, the current EU leadership is pro-animal welfare. The European Commission, especially the Agriculture and Health departments, have been pushing for higher standards. The recent EU Farm to Fork Str…
9. Will PaLM 2 be widely considered better than GPT-4 by August? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that PaLM 2 will be widely considered better than GPT-4 by August. Let me start by recalling what I know about these models. PaLM 2 is a model from Meta, and GPT-4 is from OpenAI. Both are highly anticipated and have been talked about a lot in the AI community. First, I remember that PaLM 2 was released in June 2023, and GPT-4 was out in April 2023. So PaLM 2 is a bit newer. Newer models often have an edge because they’ve been trained on more data and have had more time to refine their algorithms. Plus, Meta has a history of pushing the boundaries with their models, like with PaLM 1 being really strong. They might have improved the archi…
10. Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? resolved: NO · model P = 0.8 Okay, let’s see. The user is asking if there will be a lethal confrontation between Iran’s national military and the US military before December 1, 2022. I need to start with an initial estimate. Given the current geopolitical situation in 2022, there’s a lot of tension between the US and Iran, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. The US has imposed sanctions, and there have been incidents like the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, which Iran blamed on the US. So, there’s a high level of hostility. Now, I need to support this initial estimate with confirming evidence. First, the US has a history of using military force in response to perceived …
11. Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km? resolved: YES · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the US will launch an ICBM or SLBM with a range of at least 10,000 km between April 29, 2022, and December 1, 2022. Let me start by thinking about the context. The US has a policy of conducting regular missile tests, but ICBMs and SLBMs are a big deal. They’re part of the nuclear deterrent, so maybe there’s a low probability here. But wait, the US might want to test these to ensure their nuclear capability. Also, considering the time frame, from April to December is about 7 months. That’s a significant period. If they do it once, that’s a yes. But how likely is that? First, the US usually avoids such tests during sensitive periods o…
**12. Will the closing price of Bitcoin on Dec 31, 2022 be above 17,000?∗∗resolved:NO⋅modelP=0.2<think>Okay,soIneedtofigureouttheprobabilitythattheclosingpriceofBitcoinonDecember31,2022,willbeabove17,000. Let me start by recalling what I know about Bitcoin’s price movements around that time. First, I remember that in late 2022, the crypto market was facing a lot of pressure. The FTX collapse in November 2022 had a huge impact, leading to a significant drop in prices. By December, the market was still reeling from that event. So, if I’m thinking about the price being above $17,000 on December 31, I need to consider if there was a recovery or a trend that would push the price back up. Looking at historical data, I know that Bitcoin’s price can be volatile, but i…
13. Will Rashida Tlaib be censured, denounced or condemned by Congress before the end of 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.6 Okay, let’s see. The user is asking if Rashida Tlaib will be censured, denounced, or condemned by Congress before the end of 2023. I need to start with an initial estimate. Given the current political climate and Tlaib’s history of controversial statements, I think there’s a decent chance. But I have to stick to confirmation bias, so I’ll focus on reasons that support this. First, Tlaib has been known for her outspoken and sometimes inflammatory comments. For example, her 2019 comment about impeaching Trump “every day” was a big deal. That kind of language can ruffle feathers in Congress. Even if she’s a Democrat, her rhetoric might push some of her own party members to distance the…
14. Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to forecast whether the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks will be up in 2023. Let me start by thinking about the current state of the Chinese stock market. Recently, there’s been a lot of talk about the market being volatile due to economic slowdowns, regulatory changes, and the impact of the pandemic. But maybe I should look for reasons why it could go up instead. First, maybe the Chinese government is stepping in to support the market. I’ve heard that they might be encouraging state-owned enterprises or providing liquidity to stabilize the market. That could help boost the index. Also, if the global market is doing well, especially in the US and Europe, that could h…
15. Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2023? resolved: NO · model P = 0.2 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Alexei Navalny will be alive and out of custody by the start of 2023. Let me start by recalling what I know about Navalny. He’s a prominent Russian opposition leader, and he’s been a thorn in the side of the Russian government, especially under Putin. I remember that in 2020, he was poisoned with a nerve agent, which led to a lot of international outcry. He survived that but was arrested again in 2021 when he returned to Russia. Now, he’s serving a prison sentence, right? I think it’s for several years. So, if he’s in custody, that’s a big part of the question. First, the initial estimate. Given the Russian government’s history of u…
16. Will Félix Tshisekedi cease to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before 15 August 2020? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out if Félix Tshisekedi will stop being president of the DRC before August 15, 2020. Let me start by recalling who he is. Félix Tshisekedi became president in 2019, right? He was elected in December 2018 and took office in January 2019. Now, the question is about him ceasing to be president before mid-2020. First, I should consider the typical ways a president can leave office. The main ways are resignation, impeachment, death, or being forced out through a coup or mass protest. But the DRC has had a lot of political instability in the past. Maybe that’s a factor. However, Tshisekedi is from the opposition party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress …
17. Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? resolved: NO · model P = 0.05 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Georgia will win Eurovision 2025. Let me start by recalling what I know about Eurovision. It’s a song contest where countries send their representatives, and the winner is determined by a combination of jury and public votes. Georgia has participated before, but they haven’t won recently. I think their last win was in 1997, which is a long time ago. So, historically, they’re not the most successful country in this contest. Now, considering the current landscape. Georgia’s music industry isn’t as big as some European countries. They might not have the same level of production values or the ability to attract high-profile artists. The…
18. Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016? resolved: YES · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the US or the UN will impose new sanctions on Iran before October 18, 2016. Let me start by recalling what I know about Iran sanctions. The US has had sanctions on Iran for a long time, mainly related to nuclear programs. The UN also has sanctions, but they usually follow US lead here. Recently, in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was implemented, which lifted some sanctions in exchange for Iran’s nuclear restrictions. But maybe there are new issues now that could trigger more sanctions. First, I should check if there’s been any recent escalation. Iran has been accused of violating some terms of the JCPOA, like e…
19. Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Chinese team will be the top-ranked team again at the 64th International Math Olympiad. Let me start by recalling what I know about this. China has been really dominant in math olympiads for a long time. They have a strong education system, especially in math and science. Their students are known to be highly trained and motivated from a young age. The Chinese government places a lot of emphasis on producing top performers in international competitions, which gives them a competitive edge. Looking at past performances, China has won the most medals and often the top spot in team rankings in recent years. The 2023 IMO, for exampl…
20. Will Russia be the world’s most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Russia will be the world’s most sanctioned country by February 22, 2023. Let me start by recalling what I know about sanctions. Sanctions are measures taken by countries or international organizations to pressure another country into changing its behavior. The more sanctions a country has, the more it’s sanctioned. So, if Russia is already under a lot of sanctions, and maybe other countries are also getting sanctioned, but not as much as Russia, then it might be the most sanctioned. First, Russia is already under a lot of sanctions from the US, EU, UK, and others due to the Ukraine conflict. These sanctions cover various sectors lik…
21. Will Lee Nak-yon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election? resolved: NO · model P = 0.7 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Lee Nak-yon will win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election. Let me start by recalling what I know about South Korean politics. The presidential election is a big deal there, and the main parties are the ruling party and the opposition. Lee Nak-yon is from the ruling party, I think. The ruling party usually has an advantage because they have more resources and media coverage. But in recent elections, there’s been a trend towards opposition wins, like in 2022 when the opposition party won despite being in the minority. That might indicate that the ruling party’s lead is narrowing. Now, Lee Nak-yon is a prominent figure i…
22. Will Erin O’Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election? resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Erin O’Toole will win the 2021 Canadian federal election. Let me start by recalling what I know about the Conservative Party and O’Toole. He became the leader in 2020, replacing Andrew Scheer. I remember that the Conservatives were in a leadership race, and O’Toole was seen as a more moderate figure, trying to appeal to a broader base. So, his leadership might bring a shift in the party’s direction, maybe making them more appealing to centrist voters who have been leaning towards the Liberals in recent elections. Now, looking at the political landscape in 2021. The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, have been in power for a few years.…
23. Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? resolved: NO · model P = 0.1 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that a country will cease to formally recognize Taiwan between November 2020 and February 2021. Let me start by recalling what I know about Taiwan and international recognition. Taiwan is officially known as the Republic of China (ROC) and is claimed by China as its own territory. Most countries recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate government of China and therefore do not officially recognize Taiwan. However, there are a few countries that have official ties with Taiwan, like the US, which has a significant unofficial relationship but doesn’t have formal diplomatic recognition. Now, the time frame is from…
24. How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5) resolved: NO · model P = 0.6 Okay, so I need to figure out how many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate. Let me start by recalling what the Visual Mandela Effect is. From what I remember, it refers to situations where groups of people collectively remember a visual detail in a photo or video differently than the actual image. Like, maybe a famous photo where people remember a certain object being there, but it’s not. This phenomenon has been studied before, and there’s some interest in why it happens. Now, the question is about how many findings in this study will replicate. The study probably looked at several visual stimuli, maybe images or videos, and asked participants if…
25. Will SBF be alive on 31 Jan 2023? resolved: YES · model P = 0.95
0.95 Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder of FTX, has been a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency and trading world. Recent events have raised concerns about his well-being and safety. In late 2022, FTX filed for bankruptcy, and SBF faced intense scrutiny and legal action related to the collapse of the exchange. This led to his arrest in the Bahamas on charges of wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud the United States. Given the severity of the charges and the high-profile nature of the case, it is likely that SBF will remain in custody until at least January 31, 2023. Additionally, considering the typical legal proceedings and the time required for bail hearings or trials, it is highly pr…
26. Will China announce an agreement to build a PLA military base anywhere in North American or South American continents before April 1, 2025? resolved: NO · model P = 0.05 Okay, let’s see. The user is asking if China will announce an agreement to build a PLA military base in North or South America before April 1, 2025. My initial thought is that this is highly unlikely. Why? Well, China has been expanding its military presence in recent years, but the Americas are a sensitive region for the US and its allies. I remember that the US has a strong military presence in the Americas, and allowing a Chinese base there would be a big geopolitical move. China might want to avoid provoking the US or causing a diplomatic incident. Plus, the US has a history of opposing foreign military bases in the Americas, so even if China tried, there might be resistance from…
27. Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday? resolved: NO · model P = 0.15 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Wales will score a goal against England on Tuesday. Let me start by recalling the current form of both teams. England has been pretty strong recently, especially in their Euro 2024 qualifiers. They’ve got a solid defense and some potent forwards. Wales, on the other hand, has been struggling a bit. They’ve only won a few games in the qualifiers and have had some injuries to key players. First, looking at their recent matches, England has been consistent in keeping clean sheets. Their goalkeeper has been excellent, and their defense has been solid. Wales, however, has had some issues with their backline. They’ve conceded a lot of goa…
28. How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5) resolved: NO · model P = 0.8 Okay, so I need to figure out how many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate. Let me start by recalling what the Visual Mandela Effect is. From what I remember, it refers to situations where groups of people collectively misremember visual information, like the color of the sky in a famous painting or the design of a product. The study probably investigated some of these instances. First, I should consider the reliability of the original study. If the study had a small sample size or methodological flaws, that might reduce replication rates. But maybe it’s well-designed. Let’s assume it’s a solid study with clear methods and a reasonable sample. Ne…
29. Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners) resolved: NO · model P = 0.5 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that the Seattle Mariners will win the 2022 World Series. Let me start by recalling what I know about the Mariners. They’re a team in the American League West, and in 2022, they had a decent season but not the best. I think they finished with a winning record, maybe around .500. The AL West is a competitive division with teams like the Astros, A’s, Angels, and Rangers. So the Mariners would have to get through the playoffs, which is tough. First, the Mariners’ performance in 2022: They had a 90-72 record, which is a good but not great record. They were in third place in their division, so they didn’t even win their division. To get to th…
30. Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? resolved: NO · model P = 0.85 Okay, so I need to figure out the probability that Russia will annex Transnistria in 2022. Let me start by recalling what I know about Transnistria. It’s a breakaway region in Moldova, right? I remember that it’s been a sort of frozen conflict area for a while. So, the question is whether Russia will annex it this year. First, I should consider Russia’s recent actions. In 2022, especially after the Ukraine conflict started, Russia has been expanding its influence in the region. They’ve been supporting the Transnistrian leadership, which is pro-Russian. So there’s a strong political and maybe even military presence there. That seems like a good foundation for an annexation. Looking …